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The Guardian
2 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
The bitter feud fuelling the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia
The dispute over Thailand and Cambodia's contested border, which dates back more than a century to disagreements over colonial-era maps, has broken into conflict before. But the most recent clashes, which erupted on Thursday, have been fuelled by another factor: a bitter feud between two powerful political patriarchs. Hun Sen, 72, and Thaksin Shinawatra, 76, former leaders of Cambodia and Thailand, were once such close friends they reportedly called one another brothers. Hun Sen has, over the years, supported Thaksin's family during their long-running power struggle with Thailand's military. Thaksin and his sister Yingluck stayed at Hun Sen's home after they were ousted from power, while Hun Sen appointed Thaksin an economic adviser to the Cambodian government. Thaksin frequently visited Cambodia, and Hun Sen was the first foreign guest to see the former Thai leader after he returned home after more than 15 years in self-imposed exile. But relations have broken down spectacularly over recent months. The exact reasons for their feud are unclear, but analysts say it has created an additional layer of volatility that is exacerbating deadly clashes on the neighbouring countries' border. Hun Sen and Thaksin are no longer in office in their respective countries, but both remain powerful. Hun Sen ruled for almost 40 years until 2023, when his eldest son Hun Manet became prime minister after running virtually uncontested in a sham election. Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra became prime minister last year. The extent of their falling out became clear last month, when Hun Sen leaked a recording of a phone conversation between himself and Paetongtarn. In the call, which was about the border dispute, Paetongtarn called Hun Sen 'uncle' and told him if there was anything he wanted, she would 'take care of it'. She also made disparaging comments about a senior Thai military commander. The leaked recording caused uproar in Thailand. Critics accused her of kowtowing to Cambodia, putting her family connections before the country's national interests. She was suspended from office by the constitutional court in July pending an investigation into ethical violations. It's not clear why Hun Sen chose to turn on his former friends. He has accused Thaksin of betrayal and threatened to reveal further sensitive information about the Shinawatras. 'I never imagined someone so close could act this way,' Thaksin said later, declaring their friendship over. Some analysts say Hun Sen may be trying to whip up nationalism domestically to increase support for his son, Hun Manet. Others suggest Hun Sen has been angered by Thailand's efforts to crack down on so-called 'scam compounds' where trafficked workers are held and forced to target people around the world with online scams. This form of lucrative criminal activity has proliferated in the region over recent years, especially in Cambodia. 'The popular narrative in Thailand is that the two men may have had some kind of personal dealings behind the scenes that did not go according to plan and the fallout has spilled over into the realm of national interest,' said Tita Sanglee, associate fellow with ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Whatever his motivations, Hun Sen has succeeded in damaging Thaksin's position, exploiting divisions between his family and the military, and creating a power vacuum in Thailand. Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion Hun Sen, meanwhile, 'holds near absolute control in Cambodia', adds Tita. He has stamped out virtually all opposition voices and independent media. 'When he chooses to take a strong stance, militarily or politically, it has immediate and direct consequences.' On Thursday night, Thaksin said he had thanked countries that had offered to mediate the border dispute, but would like to wait, adding: 'We need to let the Thai military do their job, and first teach this cunning Hun Sen a lesson.' Given Thaksin's weakened position, he may not have a choice but to let the military take the lead. Last week Thailand downgraded it diplomatic relations with Cambodia, recalling its ambassador, and saying it would expel the country's envoy in Bangkok. Thaksin has denied the families' feud was the cause of the clashes. However awkward questions about his friend turned foe are likely to continue. As he visited communities sheltering from the conflict in Ubon Ratchathani, in northeastern Thailand, a woman confronted him: 'You're Hun Sen's friend, aren't you? Is he your friend? Why do you allow Cambodia to shoot Thai people?' Solving territorial disagreements is difficult in any context, said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University. 'No country would like to sacrifice any inch of sovereignty,' he said. But the personal conflict between Hun Sen and Thaksin has, he added, made their countries' dispute even more unpredictable. This article was amended on 27 July 2025. An earlier version said Hun Sen ruled Cambodia until 2003; however, his rule ended in 2023.
Malay Mail
3 days ago
- Business
- Malay Mail
Hun Sen or Hun Manet: Thailand holds all the cards against the duo — Phar Kim Beng
JULY 27 — The border crisis between Thailand and Cambodia has laid bare the illusory nature of Cambodia's political transition. Far from fading into the background, Hun Sen has reclaimed the national stage, steering Phnom Penh's response with an iron grip. Rather than acting as an elder advisor, Hun Sen is the central figure directing Cambodia's strategy, eclipsing his son, Prime Minister Hun Manet, in both authority and visibility. Publicly accusing Thailand of provocations, Hun Sen has reasserted himself as Cambodia's top decision-maker, revealing that the much-touted generational shift was largely cosmetic. While Cambodia's statecraft remains highly personalized and centralized, Thailand presents a stark contrast: an institutionalized system capable of calibrating its response across multiple layers of governance. In this unfolding conflict, Thailand holds the advantage—not just militarily, but diplomatically and economically as well. Thailand's military capabilities significantly outpace those of Cambodia. With better-trained forces, advanced weaponry, air dominance, and superior logistics, Thailand maintains the upper hand in any potential escalation. Cambodia's border units may be fierce and motivated, but they are no match for Thailand's coordinated defense infrastructure. Beyond the battlefield, Thailand commands a stronger position in international diplomacy. As a long-standing and respected member of ASEAN, Thailand enjoys credibility in regional and global forums. In contrast, Cambodia is increasingly viewed as dependent on external patrons, especially China, and as a country whose governance is undermined by opaque leadership and economic entanglement with illicit digital operations. Even Beijing, while publicly urging restraint, may prefer Bangkok's institutional stability over Hun Sen's unpredictable behavior. The economic disparity between the two nations further tilts the scales. Thailand's economy is more diversified, more resilient, and more integrated into regional supply chains. It possesses the capacity to weather shocks, both diplomatic and financial. Cambodia's economy, by comparison, remains fragile and vulnerable, heavily reliant on tourism, garment exports, and, increasingly, dark digital scams proliferating along the border with Thailand. These scam syndicates not only distort Cambodia's economic reputation but also entrench illicit networks that feed insecurity, corruption, and cross-border tensions. Thailand's strength lies not just in its capabilities, but in its restraint. Even when faced with armed resistance, Bangkok relies on institutional decision-making through its foreign ministry, defense establishment, and national security apparatus. This allows it to manage crises with measured responses, maintaining credibility while avoiding unnecessary escalation. Cambodia, on the other hand, suffers from a lack of diplomatic coherence, especially with the unclear balance of power between Hun Sen and Hun Manet. This ambiguity in leadership is a critical weakness. Hun Manet may hold the title of Prime Minister, but he has not been allowed to lead with full authority. Hun Sen's public resurgence in the current crisis diminishes his son's standing both domestically and internationally. For Thailand and other regional actors, it is unclear beyond Hun Sen, who else to engage—raising doubts about a quick and swift end to the war let alone be able to have a ceasefire with Cambodia that can hold. As and when Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim brokered a cease between the two countries on July 25 2025, it broke down in less than an hour after 12 PM. This suggested the lack of any stability and direction in Cambodia since it was Hun Manet who made the announcement that a ceasefire had been established only to witness its own sudden end. The result is a Cambodia that appears more divided and volatile, while Thailand can act with strategic patience. Bangkok does not need to force a quick resolution. Time, regional sentiment, and diplomatic momentum are already on its side. Thailand's decision-makers understand that sustainable advantage lies not in immediate confrontation, but in leveraging regional mechanisms and narratives that position Bangkok as the more responsible actor. Hun Sen's return may project strength in the short term, but it undermines the credibility of Cambodia's political evolution. Ironically this is why Thailand cannot attack Cambodia with total vehemence since Bangkok risks creating a serious power vacuum in Phnom Penh. By denying his son the space to lead, Hun Sen, who is the President of the Cambodian Senate, signals to ASEAN and the broader international community that real change has not taken root. This perception, once formed, is difficult to undo. Hun Manet's authority as the real Prime Minister has diminished totally despite being an alumni and a four star general once trained by West Point Military Academy of the US. Ultimately, Thailand holds the cards because it plays the long game to erode Hun Sen first while hoping that Hun Manet can step into the shows of the father in future. With stronger institutions, a credible military, and more trust from regional actors, Thailand does not need to provoke Cambodia. It merely needs to weaken it from laying mines along the 817 KM borders which they share and preventing Hun Sen from resorting to any long range artilerries to bomb Bangkok. Unfortunately, Hun Sen has made the thread before. Although he is equally aware that this must be the red line that Cambodia must not cross. If it does, the dynasty of Hun Sen risks being obliterated. As things stand, Thailand simply needs to remain composed, knowing that Cambodia's volatility only strengthens Bangkok's position. In this border crisis, it is not a contest between Hun Sen and Hun Manet—it is a contest between centralized personalism and institutional maturity. And on all fronts, Thailand prevails. ** Phar Kim Beng, PhD, is Professor of ASEAN Studies at the International Islamic University of Malaysia (IIUM) and the Director of the Institute of Internationalization and ASEAN Studies (IINTAS). ** This is the personal opinion of the writer or publication and does not necessarily represent the views of Malay Mail.
The Guardian
3 days ago
- Politics
- The Guardian
The bitter feud fuelling the border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia
The dispute over Thailand and Cambodia's contested border, which dates back more than a century to disagreements over colonial-era maps, has broken into conflict before. But the most recent clashes, which erupted on Thursday, have been fuelled by another factor: a bitter feud between two powerful political patriarchs. Hun Sen, 72, and Thaksin Shinawatra, 76, former leaders of Cambodia and Thailand, were once such close friends they reportedly called one another brothers. Hun Sen has, over the years, supported Thaksin's family during their long-running power struggle with Thailand's military. Thaksin and his sister Yingluck stayed at Hun Sen's home after they were ousted from power, while Hun Sen appointed Thaksin an economic adviser to the Cambodian government. Thaksin frequently visited Cambodia, and Hun Sen was the first foreign guest to see the former Thai leader after he returned home after more than 15 years in self-imposed exile. But relations have broken down spectacularly over recent months. The exact reasons for their feud are unclear, but analysts say it has created an additional layer of volatility that is exacerbating deadly clashes on the neighbouring countries' border. Hun Sen and Thaksin are no longer in office in their respective countries, but both remain powerful. Hun Sen ruled for almost 40 years until 2003, when his eldest son Hun Manet became prime minister after running virtually uncontested in a sham election. Thaksin's daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra became prime minister last year. The extent of their falling out became clear last month, when Hun Sen leaked a recording of a phone conversation between himself and Paetongtarn. In the call, which was about the border dispute, Paetongtarn called Hun Sen 'uncle' and told him if there was anything he wanted, she would 'take care of it'. She also made disparaging comments about a senior Thai military commander. The leaked recording caused uproar in Thailand. Critics accused her of kowtowing to Cambodia, putting her family connections before the country's national interests. She was suspended from office by the constitutional court in July pending an investigation into ethical violations. It's not clear why Hun Sen chose to turn on his former friends. He has accused Thaksin of betrayal and threatened to reveal further sensitive information about the Shinawatras. 'I never imagined someone so close could act this way,' Thaksin said later, declaring their friendship over. Some analysts say Hun Sen may be trying to whip up nationalism domestically to increase support for his son, Hun Manet. Others suggest Hun Sen has been angered by Thailand's efforts to crackdown on so-called 'scam compounds' where trafficked workers are held and forced to target people around the world with online scams. This form of lucrative criminal activity has proliferated in the region over recent years, especially in Cambodia. 'The popular narrative in Thailand is that the two men may have had some kind of personal dealings behind the scenes that did not go according to plan and the fallout has spilled over into the realm of national interest,' adds Tita Sanglee, associate fellow with ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Whatever his motivations, Hun Sen has succeeded in damaging Thaksin's position, exploiting divisions between his family and the military, and creating a power vacuum in Thailand. Sign up to First Edition Our morning email breaks down the key stories of the day, telling you what's happening and why it matters after newsletter promotion Hun Sen, meanwhile, 'holds near absolute control in Cambodia', adds Tita. He has stamped out virtually all opposition voices and independent media. 'When he chooses to take a strong stance, militarily or politically, it has immediate and direct consequences.' On Thursday night, Thaksin said he had thanked countries that had offered to mediate the border dispute, but would like to wait, adding: 'We need to let the Thai military do their job, and first teach this cunning Hun Sen a lesson.' Given Thaksin's weakened position, he may not have a choice but to let the military take the lead. Last week Thailand downgraded it diplomatic relations with Cambodia, recalling its ambassador, and saying it would expel the country's envoy in Bangkok. Thaksin has denied the families' feud was the cause of the clashes. However awkward questions about his friend turned foe are likely to continue. As he visited communities sheltering from the conflict in Ubon Ratchathani, in northeastern Thailand, a woman confronted him: 'You're Hun Sen's friend, aren't you? Is he your friend? Why do you allow Cambodia to shoot Thai people?' Solving territorial disagreements is difficult in any context, said Pavin Chachavalpongpun, professor at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University. 'No country would like to sacrifice any inch of sovereignty,' he said. But the personal conflict between Hun Sen and Thaksin has, he added, made their countries' dispute even more unpredictable.
CNA
6 days ago
- Politics
- CNA
Snap Insight: As Thailand and Cambodia escalate border spat, the family ties that once united now fuel hostility
SINGAPORE: Thailand and Cambodia escalated their ongoing border spat on Thursday (Jul 24), with troops exchanging fire, fighter jets deployed and reports of civilian casualties emerging. But where once the close personal ties between their leaders could have been counted on to help defuse the situation, it is that same relationship that makes matters worse today. Prime Minister Hun Manet said on Facebook that Cambodia had 'no choice but to respond with armed forces against armed aggression'. Suspended Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra wrote on Instagram subsequently that his father, Cambodian Senate President and former leader Hun Sen, was 'acting like a victim'. There has been a stunning and barely believable falling-out between two highly influential political dynasties in Southeast Asia, since Jun 15 when Mr Hun Sen leaked a phone conversation with Ms Paetongtarn that eventually led to her suspension. Once seemingly the best of comrades, Mr Hun Sen has since had only sharp words and accusations for former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is Ms Paetongtarn's father, even calling him 'immoral'. The Hun family had long embraced the Shinawatra clan, providing a place of refuge during Mr Thaksin's self-imposed exile from Thailand for 15 years. On the surface, wounded pride appears to be the most proximate reason for Mr Hun Sen turning his back on the Shinawatras. However, there are reasons to believe that there are larger factors at play in the background. A HIGH-STAKES GAME The first is that, up until recently, Mr Thaksin's Pheu Thai party had been pushing strongly to legalise casinos. It is no secret that Thais constitute a key group of customers and source of labour for Cambodia's many casinos, especially those along their shared land border. According to Thai media reports in June, several Cambodian casinos that relied on cross-border travel were forced to close temporarily due to border restrictions. The Shinawatras' fervent push for casino legalisation would therefore dent demand for Cambodian casinos and consequently, negatively impact the Cambodian economy. The Cambodian gambling sector provided over US$63.1 million in casino tax revenue to the government in 2024. Although the Thai government has since dropped the legislative Bill – mainly to avoid a potential no-confidence vote against Ms Paetongtarn – the proposal has likely caused considerable concern in Phnom Penh. Pheu Thai is almost certain to revive the legalisation effort as and when political conditions improve. FROM CRACKDOWN TO BREAKDOWN? Self-exiled Cambodian opposition figure Sam Rainsy has offered a related theory: that Hun Sen's financial interests are being threatened by Thailand's ongoing crackdown on scam centres based in these casinos on the Cambodian side of the border. He claims that criminal syndicates operating these scam centres are a source of illicit revenue for the Cambodian government and also for Mr Hun Sen and his ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP). Mr Rainsy's allegations might be dismissed as politically motivated, and are often treated as such by the CPP. But it is arguably harder to do so amid considerable reporting about the proliferation of scam centres in Cambodia. There are also longstanding allegations about the roles played by influential Cambodian businesspeople in the gambling sector, Chinese organised crime in places like Sihanoukville, and political elites in Phnom Penh. In particular, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) published an in-depth report in April on scam centres in Southeast Asia, highlighting the presence of known or reported cyberfraud compounds in Cambodia, including the city of Poipet, which lies along the Thai-Cambodian border. Thailand's Centre for Gambling Problem Studies also recently alleged close ties between Cambodia's border casinos and political elites. In mid-July, Thai authorities raided a residence believed to belong to Cambodian senator and tycoon Kok An, in relation to his alleged involvement in scam operations targeting Thai citizens. He owns the Crown Casino Resort in Poipet, and is also known for his close ties to Hun Sen. There are arrest warrants for Kok An and his children on the charge of involvement in transnational crime. Another Cambodian tycoon, sitting senator Ly Yong Phat, is now under Thai scrutiny for his potential involvement in Kok An's alleged scam network. He is also involved in Cambodia's gambling sector and happens to be Hun Sen's personal adviser. The two tycoons are also linked by the marriage of their children. BETWEEN FRIENDSHIP AND FAMILY If Thailand's casino ambitions and law enforcement border operations are the underlying reasons for Mr Hun Sen's about-face, it is unlikely that he and Mr Thaksin will reconcile anytime soon. Prompted by a decline in tourism inflows and broader economic threats, the Thai government is desperate to be seen doing something to rein in scam operations. These illegal activities have significantly undermined its reputation among Chinese visitors, a major source of tourists, who no longer flock to Thailand. Make no mistake, Pheu Thai's move to drop the casino Bill is purely tactical and not an indication that it has abandoned its plans. The deputy finance minister said as much when he stated that 'it's not the appropriate time'. To Pheu Thai, casinos and more broadly, entertainment complexes would breathe new life into a sagging economy, weighed down by weak consumption, an uncertain export outlook and lumbering tourism. And an improving economy is what Pheu Thai and the Shinawatras are ultimately betting on for political survival. Mr Thaksin would have preferred to keep Mr Hun Sen on his side. But between their friendship and Ms Paetongtarn's political longevity – and by extension the fortunes of the Shinawatra clan – he has chosen the latter.
The Independent
14-07-2025
- Politics
- The Independent
Cambodia will start military conscription next year as tensions with Thailand persist
Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Manet said Monday that his country will implement military conscription starting next year, in an announcement that coincides with persistent border tensions with Thailand. Relations between the neighbors have deteriorated sharply following an armed confrontation on May 28 in which one Cambodian soldier was killed in one of several small contested patches of land. The sides have agreed to de-escalate their dispute to avoid further clashes, but continue to implement or threaten measures that have kept tensions high, alongside exchanging sharp words. The dispute has also roiled Thailand's domestic politics. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended from office after making what critics saw as a disparaging comment about her country's military in a phone call to Cambodia's former Prime Minister Hun Sen, who leaked a recording of it. Hun Manet, Hun Sen's son and successor, said that starting in 2026, an existing law on conscription would be implemented to fill shortages and upgrade the military's capabilities. 'This is our commitment,' Hun Manet said in a speech to military forces in the northern province of Kampong Chhnang. He wore his military uniform displaying his rank of a four-star general. Hun Manet said that soldiers joining the ranks through conscription were more effective than a voluntary force and at least as professional. The conscription law was passed in 2006, but never activated. Cambodians of both sexes, aged 18 to 30, must serve but for women, service is voluntary. Thailand has long implemented conscription for men reaching 20 years of age, with an annual lottery determining how many are called up. The CIA 's World Factbook estimates Cambodia's armed forces total 200,000 personnel, including a large force of military police. It says Thailand has 350,000 active-duty personnel in its armed forces. Hun Manet also called for increasing the military budget. Cambodia is one of the region's poorer countries, with a $9.32 billion national budget for 2025, out of which the biggest share, $739 million, went for defense. He also repeated calls for Thailand to reopen without conditions all border crossings it had closed, saying that Cambodia would reciprocate within hours.
